Projects
What I'm building in public. Right now that's one thing, done properly - with the real numbers live, not cherry-picked screenshots.
polymm
liveMy Polymarket market-making bots. They de-vig sportsbook odds, quote just inside the spread, and hedge to lock the arb - and increasingly farm Polymarket's market-making rewards on top. Three run live on public wallets: b00k13 (prematch sports), m4k3r (weather and stocks), and l1v3 (live in-play sports). The retired Python version is open source; the numbers below are live.
- Python
- Rust
- Polymarket
- Supabase
Three bots, three different machines. b00k13 lives on arbs. m4k3r's trades actually run at a loss - it's net-positive purely on market-making rewards. l1v3 is a razor-thin live-sports arb. The directional side bleeds to adverse selection, which the autopsy explains. Every figure below is from the public wallets.
Trade P&L = arb + directional. MM rewards (+$3,102) sit on top, in the split below.
Adverse-selection (toxic-fill) tracking lands here next - our own metric, from the bots' logs.
Prematch sports - farming arbs; MM rewards on tight-spread markets soon
- arb
- +$8,837
- directional
- -$3,219
- rewards +
- -$17
Weather and stocks markets - MM rewards and high-spread capture
- arb
- +$4,519
- directional
- -$6,550
- rewards +
- +$3,105
Live (in-play) sports - farming arbs and MM rewards
- arb
- +$1,118
- directional
- -$1,086
- rewards +
- +$14
Net/30d/7d are all-time realised P&L from the public wallets above. Arb vs directional is the same split from the write-ups; “rewards + other” is the residual, mostly Polymarket market-making rewards. Go reconcile any of it.